Four years ago, in the depths of Tokyo Stadium, a squad of players sat hunched, just staring vacantly at the ground. A haunting silence swirls the room, a silence that spoke of shattered dreams and of efforts that fell short. Their bodies, a testament to the gruelling game they had just played, were marred with bruises, both visible and those lurking beneath the skin.

Emotions ran high as the poignant scent of sweat mingled with the silent tears that streaked the faces of those who represented their country. Stray pieces of medical tape, stained with the dirt of the pitch and the blood and sweat of its wearer, clung to battered knees and shoulders.

The opposition’s victorious jerseys, tokens of a longstanding tradition, had found their way onto the changing room floor, a bitter reminder of the defeat. Nearby, post-match nutrition shakes sat untouched on a table, a symbol of the finality of their journey. The anticipated semi-final match against England would never come to fruition. 

Amidst this eery silence, the media officer approaches the outgoing coach, Joe Schmidt and the retiring captain Rory Best. With a heavy heart, he reminded them of their imminent obligation to face the relentless scrutiny of the world’s media. They braced themselves for the barrage of questions that awaited them. How had this Irish team, once again, met their undoing in yet another quarter-final, their seventh in nine tournaments? Tucked away in the corner, assistant coach Andy Farrell stood in solemn contemplation.

Responsible for the defence that had conceded 46 points, he faced the daunting prospect of succeeding the outgoing head coach. The pressing question on his mind: How could he ensure that such a heart-wrenching scene would not play out again under his watch?

Farrell, a new coach with a new direction 

In the aftermath of this defeat in Tokyo, Andy Farrell found himself amidst the remnants of a team that had beaten New Zealand twice in the previous three years. Embarking on his tenure as head coach, Farrell understood that his era would be deemed successful only if he could decipher the enigma of conquering New Zealand at a World Cup. 

A palpable change was essential, diverging from the team’s strategies in the 12 months leading to the 2019 World Cup. Farrell tried to put his own stamp on the team for the first 18 months before wisely changing tack and embracing the work of his former boss in England, Stuart Lancaster, who was now honing his expertise in Leinster with the core players who would make up his Farrell’s squad. Remarkably, ten of the starters who had tasted bitter defeat in Tokyo are still pivotal components of the 2023 squad.

The national team that became a global behemoth

What makes New Zealand rugby such a daunting adversary for Ireland? Or are they? Over the years, New Zealand has come to epitomise the pinnacle of global rugby. They’ve artfully constructed an unmatched reputation in the rugby world, and are recognised more as the “All Blacks” instead of the name of their country.

Yet, in the past 25 years, the All Blacks have evolved from merely a distinguished national team to a global brand behemoth. They’ve strategically aligned themselves as the world’s darling, drawing parallels to iconic sports franchises such as Manchester United and the New York Yankees. The Rugby World Cup isn’t just an avenue where they represent an entire nation’s pride but an opportunity to amplify their brand. With their signature haka and emblematic black attire, the All Blacks personify a legacy of winners.

Much like Manchester United, the All Blacks’ brand stands tall on a legacy of unmatched excellence, built by generations of players who’ve worn the jersey. Their unwavering pursuit of perfection and sustained success has not only enshrined them among the greats but has also infused their brand with an alluring mystique, making it a marketeer’s dream.

Recognising this potent blend of success and allure, Adidas, their sponsor, has capitalised on it to bolster rugby’s global market presence and to firmly establish itself as the sport’s leading brand. The All Blacks’ staggering win rate of over 77 per cent since 1884 was a decisive factor in Adidas’ commitment, leading to their initial multimillion-dollar contract in 1999. 

Recently, this commitment was reaffirmed with a $US71 million deal spanning a decade, making it one of Adidas’s most enduring partnerships. In contrast, Ireland’s recent kit contract with Canterbury stands at approximately €10m for a four-year tenure. According to Forbes, the All Blacks brand is valued at $2 billion, placing them shoulder-to-shoulder with the world’s sports giants. 

However, a setback in this Rugby World Cup could potentially jeopardise the brand’s market clout. The looming spectre of a decline, mirroring the trajectory of Manchester United’s football brand, serves as a stark reminder that even Titans can falter when victories and expectations go unmet.

While it took Ireland over a century to notch their inaugural win against the All Blacks in 2016, the victory seemed to demystify the All-Black legend. Since that ground-breaking triumph at Soldier Field, Chicago in 2016, Ireland has faced New Zealand seven more times, winning four of those clashes, two of which were on Kiwi turf. The reverence once held by the older generation of Irish players for the All Blacks has somewhat diminished. While respect for New Zealand remains intact, the days of being mere spectators, awed by their prowess, are long gone.

Memories of four years ago are there to haunt

Tonight’s battle evokes memories of the 2019 quarter-final, creating an air of Déjà vu. Ireland step into this game with a notable record, having triumphed over the All Blacks three times in this World Cup cycle. 

Their victories include a notable win in Dublin in 2021 and a historic triumph in New Zealand in 2022, where Ireland clinched the three-test series. Interestingly, the assistant coaches from that pivotal 2019 quarter-final game have ascended to lead their respective teams. New Zealand’s assistant coach, Joe Schmidt, the man to whom Irish rugby owes much, finds himself in an intriguing position. Once the architect of Ireland’s successes, he now stands as a potential roadblock to what might be the crowning achievement of the very team he helped meticulously construct. 

Joe Schmidt will harness every ounce of insight

Schmidt, renowned for his intricate game planning and deep understanding of opposition teams, will undoubtedly harness every ounce of insight he possesses into the Irish players to tilt the scales in favour of his All Blacks. Post the 2019 World Cup, Schmidt’s legacy faced undue criticism in Ireland, with many pointing fingers at him for not evolving Ireland’s game plan and inadequately equipping players to handle performance pressures.

Such censure was bitter, considering his unwavering dedication to Irish rugby over the years. While it’s unlikely that Schmidt views this match as an avenue for redemption, one can’t help but think that a win might elicit a knowing, perhaps slightly smug, grin on his face.

Judging by Ireland’s recent performances in Paris during this tournament, tonight’s showdown feels almost like a home game. The Irish supporters have flocked to the French capital, bringing with them a vibrant display of colour and song, reminiscent of past World Cup encounters in Italy in 1990, albeit in a different sport. While the streets of Ireland may not be draped in the festive bunting that adorned towns during the soccer heydays of the 1990s, the Irish rugby fanbase has showcased a commendable travelling spirit.

Ireland keep their strategies under wraps

Historically, Ireland has managed to secure the top spot in their pool at the Rugby World Cup on only two occasions. As this year’s pool stages end, the current form of the Irish team seems comparable to their 2011 performance. That year, they beat Australia and secured the top pool position, only to later falter in the quarter-final to Wales. 

There was a similar pattern in 2015 when they beat France but stumbled against Argentina. Having recently defeated the reigning World champions to clinch the top spot in this year’s pool, Ireland have effectively kept their strategies under wraps, leaving little for their adversaries to dissect and counter.

One notable challenge in the earlier games was the lineout, but this appears to have been rectified by the final pool match. However, there emerges a potential red flag when assessing the considerable match minutes including the fatiguing in-game activities recorded by the Irish players in the initial four rounds, particularly when compared to the New Zealand team. Opinion remains divided: while some believe this extensive playtime has conditioned the players for the challenges ahead, others argue it might have introduced an element of fatigue.

A detailed review of their recent clash against Scotland reveals Ireland made a staggering 195 tackles during the game. This figure, unprecedented in their recent track record, indicates Scotland's dominance in ball possession. Such a level of possession, if allowed to a powerhouse like New Zealand, could prove detrimental given their superior attacking capabilities. The sheer physical and mental toll of executing 195 tackles cannot be understated.

Moreover, Ireland's performance showed a contradiction: while they dominated the first half against Scotland, they were outperformed in the last quarter, conceding 14 points, a phase typically recognised as Ireland's strength. Although this performance dip might be downplayed given the match's outcome was essentially sealed by the 60th minute, it's crucial to acknowledge that there's scant margin for error or relaxation, especially in the decisive moments against formidable teams.

It's somewhat surreal to think that after the remarkable successes of the past two years, the fate of this World Cup cycle boils down to a mere 80-minute showdown. A victory would see Ireland shattering long-standing barriers, poised for both global supremacy on the field and enhanced recognition off it, all to the resounding chorus of enthusiastic supporters in Paris. However, a defeat would send them back home, pondering the elusive "what ifs," while the indomitable All Blacks legacy continues to enhance its triumphant brand. 

The Currency’s coverage of the Rugby World Cup is sponsored by Interpath Advisory.

Interpath Advisory supports businesses, their investors, and stakeholders with critical financial advisory and restructuring services.  Enhanced by technology, Interpath’s purpose is to create, defend, preserve, sustain, and grow value. Interpath in Ireland operates across 3 offices in Dublin, Cork, and Belfast.