The Rugby World Cup 2023 got underway in Paris last night with France beating New Zealand by 29 points to 13, and it’s not just the teams that are getting into action. As 20 international squads fine-tune their strategies, a dedicated group of sports researchers from universities in the likes of New Zealand, Australia, the UK, and Ireland are diving deep into the data-driven narratives of this World Cup. These scholars have been meticulously planning their analyses for months, and with the tournament’s commencement, their data collection journey has begun.

Yet, the looming question remains: Can past research forecast the future of this sport? As Niccolò Machiavelli once noted: “Whoever wishes to foresee the future must consult the past.”

A 2020 study analysing the 2019 Rugby World Cup unearthed a series of performance indicators that played pivotal roles during the final stages of the 2019 tournament. Using data from the official tournament website, several key trends emerged for winning teams:

• They scored almost twice the points of their counterparts.
• They had fewer ball carries and passes per match.
• They made more tackles per game.
• They executed more kicks from hand.
• They maintained superior ball carry effectiveness.
• They secured a marginally better tackle success rate.

Interestingly, these trends mirror findings from the 2015 and 2011 Rugby World Cups.

As Ireland steps onto the global stage for their 10th Rugby World Cup appearance, how do they measure up against these success indicators? Recent data is promising. Over the past year, only Ireland, New Zealand, and South Africa have averaged over four tries per game, suggesting Ireland’s prowess in matching the tournament’s titans. Meanwhile, teams like England, Australia, and Wales lag behind in try-scoring.

Two standout statistics from this research - ball carries and kicks - offer a telling strategy. Winning teams tend to favour fewer ball carries and more kicks, implying that retaining possession isn't always the golden ticket in knockout matches. Instead, playing in the opponent's half, and minimising errors, can be game-changers.

The possession of the ball in knock-out tournament rugby may be seen as a liability and the team that can play in the opposition’s half and not their own will become a huge feature in the success of the team. This comes with a warning for the average rugby fan – sit back and watch but knockout rugby is not a pretty spectacle at times and might lead to a more conservative, less thrilling style of play that resembles sitting in the front row of Wimbledon watching the ball going from one side of the court to the other hoping someone will make an error

 Recent data shows that Ireland and New Zealand are leaders in ball-carrying, but France and South Africa are adjusting their tactics to reflect this research. Moreover, Ireland's shift towards an average of 30 kicks per game, aligning with France and England, is noteworthy and might intensify as the World Cup progresses.

While tackle success percentages among the top 10 teams don't vary dramatically, the approach to defence does. For instance, Ireland’s group rivals, Scotland boasts a 90 per cent tackle success rate, while South Africa has 83 per cent. To the casual observer, this might suggest Scotland's superior defence. However, understanding each team's defensive strategy is crucial. Scotland adopts a more controlled, passive approach, while South Africa's aggressive style might lead to more missed tackles. But, winning teams generally make more tackles, indicating a robust defensive system capable of thwarting and frustrating opposition attacks.

Form

Ireland's recent warm-up matches might not have dazzled fans, but it's essential to understand the dual purpose they served. Firstly, they offered the fitness team a chance to gauge players' pre-season progress. Secondly, they presented a platform for emerging talents to impress Coach Andy Farrell and stake their claim in the squad. Although the games against Italy and Samoa left much to be desired, these matches were arguably less challenging than some of Ireland's intensive pre-season training sessions.

The lineout emerged as a potential weakness during these fixtures, but it's anticipated that this will see significant improvement in the subsequent matches. Ireland must harness the momentum from their earlier Grand Slam victory, using the initial matches against Romania and Tonga to revisit that high-energy gameplay. A noticeable lapse was seen in the team's attacking organisation during the warm-ups, an aspect that had been their hallmark over the past two years. Ireland struggled in their pace at organising their attack, especially during multi-phase attack moments when they looked slow to reset. It's crucial for the team to reignite this strength in the forthcoming matches.

Considering the global rugby landscape, it's intriguing that only one team from the northern hemisphere, England, has clinched a World Cup title. A glance at the calendar provides some insight. The World Cup typically takes place during September and October. While Ireland's last competitive face-off was on 18th March of this year, southern hemisphere giants like South Africa have been actively engaged against top-tier teams such as New Zealand, Australia, and Argentina. Additionally, they've had warm-up matches against formidable opponents like New Zealand and Argentina. This suggests that teams from the southern hemisphere enter the World Cup more battle-ready, having faced rigorous challenges closer to the tournament's commencement.

Squad Depth

Arriving in France, Ireland's squad is in a notably robust state compared to many competitors. Yet, the team's success hinges significantly on the health and availability of its key players. Injuries to stalwarts like Furlong, Ringrose, Van Der Flier, or Keenan could significantly hamper the squad's capabilities, given the scarcity of equivalent replacements. While Bealham has shown impressive growth this international season, he still lags when pitted against elite opponents, especially when compared to Furlong.

Van Der Flier stands out as the sole open-side flanker in the team. Although other back row players might suffice against lesser opponents, Van Der Flier's unique skills are integral to Ireland's intended gameplay. The absence of either Keenan or Ringrose could be particularly detrimental. Despite efforts over this World Cup cycle, Ireland has yet to identify fitting backups for these two exceptional talents.

As Ireland steps onto the pitch in Bordeaux, braving the sweltering late summer heat, their journey in the Rugby World Cup 2023 begins. But this journey is unlike any other. Success for the Irish might not merely rest on emulating past performance data but on a multitude of factors intricately woven together.

Over the past four years, Andy Farrell and his team have meticulously crafted their campaign, leaving no stone unturned in their preparation. Yet, for all the strategies and drills, there are elements beyond their control. In the ever-evolving landscape of international rugby, where matches can be won or lost in a heartbeat, the fate of Ireland's campaign could hinge on a single referee's call or a momentary lapse in player discipline.

Post the previous World Cup, the management recognised the challenge of performance anxiety and undertook initiatives to bolster the mental resilience of the players. However, the path ahead is not just about strategies and gameplay. It's about confronting the demons of the past and carving out a fresh, triumphant narrative for the future. As fans and supporters, we must brace ourselves for an exhilarating roller coaster of emotions, hoping that this time, Ireland can exorcise the ghosts of previous tournaments and etch a glorious chapter in rugby history.

The Currency's coverage of the Rugby World Cup is sponsored by Interpath Advisory.

Interpath Advisory supports businesses, their investors, and stakeholders with critical financial advisory and restructuring services.  Enhanced by technology, Interpath’s purpose is to create, defend, preserve, sustain, and grow value. Interpath in Ireland operates across 3 offices in Dublin, Cork, and Belfast.