Last year’s optimism that inflation was starting to fall has given way to a more nuanced set of expectations. Most forecasters and central banks are now more confident that headline rates of inflation are set to fall over the remainder of the year. However, rates of core inflation appear to be far too sticky for comfort, and that means that the major central banks may keep rates higher for longer. In Q4 last year, inflation data in the US and elsewhere began to fall. Some of the declines were merely calendar effects – and as the base effect of the…

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